Ukraine

Russia is sustaining long-range strikes across the whole country while ground fighting stays concentrated in the east and south. Risk varies sharply by oblast rather than nationally: the western regions operate close to normally, the centre absorbs periodic mass attacks, and front-line and border oblasts face near-continuous air alerts and direct fire. Russia holds ground in six regions.
90+Clients supported
120+Projects delivered
24Oblasts assessed
24/7Emergency support

Operational risk by oblast

Hover an area · + for methodology

What changed

Last 30 days

Since 27 August Russia has replaced single mass barrages with continuous rolling drone waves. Kyiv spent 872 minutes under air alert in one day across eleven separate alerts — the most since March 2022. The stated aim is to halt commerce and exhaust air defence by attrition, not to maximise damage on any one night.

Warehouses and distribution centres are now deliberately in the target set. Facilities belonging to Fora, Roshen, Comfy, Budynok Ihrashok and Avrora were damaged or destroyed around Kyiv on 27 August. Rail delays reached thirteen hours the same day.

  • Shelter protocols written for one long alert a night do not survive three and a half short ones a day. Decide which roles continue from shelter, and which stop.
  • If you hold stock or run a depot near Kyiv you are in a category that has now been struck. Review dispersal, generator and fuel autonomy, and single points of failure.
  • Delivery commitments made on pre-August assumptions will not hold. Build float into anything time-critical.

What we deliver

Ukraine
Security planning & programsSite and operational risk assessments, security plans and SOPs, implementation support.
Travel securityPre-travel briefings, travel logistics and communications, 24/7 advice and emergency support.
Intelligence supportThreat monitoring and alerts, security and geopolitical analysis, due diligence.
TrainingTravel security training, crisis management training, HEAT and risk awareness training.

Published analysis

Weekly
PDFUkraine Security Update21–27 Aug 2026PDFUkraine Security Update15–21 Aug 2026

Highest operational risk

13/24 at 3+
MinimalExtreme
DonetskExtreme
DnipropetrovskHigh
KharkivHigh
KhersonHigh
Kyiv CityHigh
SumyHigh
ZaporizhzhiaHigh
ChernihivSubstantial
and 5 more at 3 or above — hover the map for every oblast.

Scored separately

6 regions
Russia holds ground in six Ukrainian regions, about 19-20% of the country. Occupied territory is rated 6 · Extreme and hatched on the map. Where an oblast is only partly occupied, the score shown is for the Ukrainian-controlled part.
CrimeaOccupied in full since 2014
Luhansk OblastOccupied in near full, about 99%
Donetsk OblastAbout 78-83% occupied
Kherson OblastAbout 76% occupied — Kherson city remains Ukrainian-controlled
Zaporizhzhia OblastAbout 74% occupied — Zaporizhzhia city remains Ukrainian-controlled
Kharkiv and Sumy OblastsSmall border incursions, about 4% and 1%

Regions of operation

Coverage
UkraineEastern Europe & CaucasusMiddle East & GulfCentral Asia